And the Official June 14 Count is... It's Complicated

Through reports of 5 to 11 million have been floated online, the count from June 14 is likely more of a rough estimate than a firm figure.

Leyden, MA Photo by Pam

We crave certainty. In an uncertain world, there’s something comforting about firm numbers and data. This is why many of you have one question today. . . How many people protested in June 14?

Unfortunately, the data is more like a Facebook profile status—it’s complicated.

Crowd counting is complex and, at best, we can offer an estimate on a movement of this scale. Counts from protests under a few hundred can provide accurate counts, but once a demonstration begins to swell past 1,000, things get tricky.

People move about. Participants come and go. Also, emotion often alters our perception of crowd sizes, as does the space of the forum. All of this together makes crowd counting, especially by volunteers not armed with expensive technology, tricky.

Here’s an example (if numbers bore you, skip to the next paragraph).

One common method of counting called the Jacob’s Method estimates the space each person occupies in a crowd and then divides that by the area of the event. It’s a good method for organizers and the press; however, it only yields rough numbers( +/- 20%). If you used this method and it calculated 10,000 protesters, the estimate range would be 8,000-12,000.

At best, we can hope for a rough estimate. And that’s OK, we don’t need perfect numbers because what we do know is amazing.

As of the writing of this newsletter, data has been collected from 18% of the sites. On my spreadsheet, I record a high and low estimate, as well as a running tally. From these numbers, I can project an overall count. And here it is…

Current Count: 1,330,601 to 1,850,722
Current Count with Boston: 2,330,601 to 2,850,722 (see Q&A)
Average Attendance per Location: 3,539 to 4,909

If these averages hold, the final June 14 estimate will be between. . .

8,431,548 to 11,309,062*

That’s 2.4% to 3.3% of the US population!

*Calculation Correction: 1:01 PM PT 6/15

And this number tracks with the increase in protest sites and the increase in crowd size. When you consider that an estimated 3.5 to 4.5 million people participated on April 5, THIS IS ASTOUNDING!!!

In two months, the resistance has more than doubled.

• 2100+ protests were held.

• They were nonviolent with only a handful of incidents.

• The protests were covered across every media outlet.

• And perhaps best of all… they held the attention of the nation, whereas the parade in DC was poorly attended.

We did what we set out to do—we dissented and the world took notice.

What do we do now?

We continue to dissent.

• We protest regularly.

• We speak out at town halls.

• We write messages on sidewalks.

• We call our representatives.

• We get boycott and strike.

We keep fighting. One protest isn’t enough. This is a marathon, not a sprint. According to the research on nonviolent action (that 3.5% rule), sustained action turns the tide. We must persist, nonviolently and with care for one another.

Yesterday, was the largest protest in decades, and the second largest in US history.

Rejoice! Rest. And, take care of each other. Tomorrow, we persist. Check back here weekly for ways to dissent an protest news.

Q&A

1. Why is Boston excluded from the average/count?

   Boston combined their No Kings with their Pride parade. An estimated 1,000,000 people attended! We love these numbers, but they so exceed the rest of the data that they skew the averages.

2. When will I release a final estimate?

   I will release the final estimate once the average stabilizes.
   

   At present, when a massive count of 30k plus is entered, it alters the average by 30-50. This means that prior to say entering St. Paul, the low average was 3,515. After entering St. Paul, it changed to 3,565.

   
   It has already begun to do so, sticking near 3,500 in the low estimate. Once we have more sites reporting, this will stop and a large or small entry will only shift the average slightly. I suspect by Monday.

3. How can we do this faster next time?
   Spread the word. If more sites enter data earlier, we can get a more accurate count earlier. You can volunteer to count. Go to wethepeopledissent.net.

4. How do we collect our data?

   Our datât is collected by volunteers and submitted by organizers and attendees. When possible we cite our source.

5. EDIT: JUNE 15 12:30 PM - What about the numbers? Are they reliable?

   As I have not viewed the data myself, I cannot confirm the data being circulated. I do not doubt that these numbers could be correct, and I hope to be able to verify them; however, I am hesitant to publish a final count until I collect more data myself.